The Gaza Strip seems destined to become a great graveyard, where the living only wait for death to come upon them, “wrote Palestinian writer Yusri Al Qul.
Over the past year, Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip have resulted in the deaths of over 40000 Palestinians and displaced 2.3 million people.
Behind the cold numbers, the people of Gaza have almost lost everything – their loved ones, homes, careers, and dreams.
Why has the current Israeli Palestinian conflict been delayed for a year?
Where will the situation in the Middle East go in the future?
Chinanews invited Tian Wenlin, a professor of the School of International Relations of Renmin University of China, and Yu Guoqing, a researcher of the Institute of West Asia and Africa Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, to conduct in-depth interpretation.
The worst in 20 years! Why did the Israeli Palestinian conflict last for a year?
On October 7, 2023, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) launched its largest rocket attack in recent years from the Gaza Strip towards Israel, claiming to have caused approximately 1200 deaths and over 200 hostages. Subsequently, the government declared a “state of war” and quickly launched the “Iron Sword” operation, vowing to retaliate against Hamas.
On October 7, 2023 local time, Israel launched an airstrike on the Gaza Strip, causing an explosion in a Palestinian apartment building, with fireballs and smoke rising.
Since that day, the Israeli military has continuously carried out airstrikes on the Gaza Strip while strengthening ground operations. From streets to residences, from hospitals to refugee camps, “the Israeli military targets everyone, and no one is safe,” said Josep Borrelli, the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. Israel’s military operations in Gaza have turned the land into the world’s largest “open-air cemetery.
Why hasn’t there been a glimmer of peace in the deadliest Israeli Palestinian conflict in 20 years?
Tian Wenlin analyzed that there may be several major factors behind it:
·Israel deliberately retaliates against Hamas in an unequal manner, intimidating and preventing other anti Israel radical armed groups from imitating Hamas, playing a deterrent role.
·Israel wants to completely eliminate Hamas and demilitarize Gaza. This is a high strategic goal that requires significant investment and a long time to achieve.
·Based on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s own political considerations. If Netanyahu were to cease hostilities in order to maintain his image as “Mr. Safety,” he would face questioning and reckoning from domestic opposition forces.
·The support of the United States has enabled Israel’s military operations in the Gaza Strip to be conducted with confidence.
·Palestine, including Hamas, is generally in a weak position and cannot form a strong balance against Israel.
On July 6, 2024 local time, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, Palestinians watched as Israel carried out an airstrike on a United Nations school that was a shelter for displaced persons.
The current conflict has lasted for a year, which is indeed unexpected. “Yu Guoqing said that Hamas'” Al Aqsa flood “operation exceeded Israel’s expectations, the sudden incident, Israel’s insufficient response plan, and the three strategic goals proposed by Prime Minister Netanyahu have all prolonged the conflict between the two sides.
Yu Guoqing also stated that “no party expected this conflict to cause such a serious humanitarian disaster.” The 2.4 million population in the Gaza Strip is mainly concentrated in cities such as Gaza City, Khan Younis in the south, and Rafa. Currently, 80% of houses have been destroyed, 90% of the population is displaced, and food, drinking water, and other supplies are severely lacking.
He pointed out that all parties should conduct a comprehensive reflection on the situation, reflect on the reasons for the outbreak of the conflict, the losses caused, and how long the conflict will last, otherwise there is no hope for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Conflict spillover is difficult to stop
Israel is in a ‘geopolitical storm’
The Gaza war has not yet subsided, and smoke is rising in many parts of the Middle East.
After the outbreak of the current Israeli Palestinian conflict, there have been obvious spillover effects, “Tian Wenlin pointed out.” The Houthi armed forces continue to attack merchant ships in the Red Sea, Hezbollah in Lebanon continues to launch rockets into Israeli territory, and militia armed groups in Iraq, Iran and other countries also launch rockets into Israel
Recently, Lebanon’s pager exploded on a large scale, and the Israeli army launched the “most violent airstrikes” on Lebanon. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah was killed in the attack. On the evening of October 5th to 6th local time, Israel launched a new round of airstrikes on the southern outskirts of the Lebanese capital, and the Middle East’s “powder keg” was about to explode.
On July 6, 2024 local time, in Nuseirat, central Gaza Strip, Palestinians watched as Israel carried out an airstrike on a United Nations school that was a shelter for displaced persons.
The New York Times reported that the killing of Nasrallah is a significant escalation of Israel’s rapidly expanding offensive against Hezbollah in recent times, which could escalate into a “full-scale regional war”.
Tian Wenlin emphasized that the current Palestinian Israeli conflict is highly correlated with the current Lebanon Israel conflict, which has caused the Middle East region to shift from a “wave of reconciliation” to a “wave of turmoil”. Many Middle Eastern countries, especially moderate Arab countries, had stable relations with Israel before, but now they have no interaction and are very distant from each other.
The conflict between Palestine and Israel is in a state of being interconnected, causing the escalation of the conflict in the entire Middle East region to constantly heat up, “said Tian Wenlin.
Yu Guoqing believes that in the past few decades, Hezbollah has accumulated experience in the struggle, with combat forces and weapons far exceeding Hamas. For Israel, it is a more threatening opponent. Currently, Israel is facing threats from multiple fronts and is in the midst of a geopolitical storm.
The current Israeli Palestinian conflict has had a negative impact on the security situation of neighboring countries such as Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and even Egypt. Yu Guoqing pointed out that if the conflict is not resolved for a long time, it may severely test and challenge the international community’s framework for maintaining peace and security, especially the authority and role of the United Nations.
Where is the dawn of peace?
Implementing the ‘two-state solution’ is fundamental
Recently, at the 79th General Debate of the United Nations General Assembly, several national leaders issued a strong call for Israel to immediately stop the pace of war and preserve hope for peace.
Data Image: UN Secretary General Guterres.
On September 27th local time, UN Secretary General Guterres warned that “the spillover of the situation in Gaza could put the entire region in danger and efforts must be made towards a political solution to the crisis
Along with the vast majority of countries, China has launched active and effective “shuttle diplomacy” in the Middle East, taking the “two-state solution” as the fundamental way to solve the Israeli Palestinian issue.
Yu Guoqing mentioned that in July, at the invitation of the Chinese side, high-level representatives from 14 Palestinian factions held consecutive reconciliation meetings in Beijing and jointly signed the Beijing Declaration on Ending Secession and Strengthening Palestinian National Unity.
During the conflict, the Chinese side gathered people from various factions in Palestine to Beijing to help resolve their internal differences and make important coordination and consultation efforts. Yu Guoqing said, “The international community should also help Palestine and Israel realize that if the conflict continues for a long time, it will cause great harm, and both sides should cease hostilities as soon as possible
Tian Wenlin also pointed out that after the outbreak of the current Israeli Palestinian conflict, China has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities on both sides in international occasions, while providing a large amount of humanitarian aid to Palestine, playing a constructive role.
Tian Wenlin also emphasized that “the country outside the region that has the greatest impact on the situation in the Middle East is the United States – objectively, the United States has promoted the prolongation of the conflict
The United States should end its’ dual track ‘policy towards Israel as soon as possible. As the main donor country to Israel, the United States bears a moral responsibility to promote an end to violence and save lives. The humanitarian crisis in Gaza requires immediate attention and action, “said Tian Wenlin.