On the 29th local time, the Conference Board released data showing that the US Consumer Confidence Index rose to 108.7 in October, reaching its highest level in nine months.
The data shows that the US Consumer Confidence Index for October was 108.7, an increase of 9.5 from September’s 99.2, which is the largest monthly increase since March 2021 and higher than market expectations.
Specifically, the current situation index based on consumers’ assessment of the current business and labor market conditions has risen to 138. The expected index based on consumers’ short-term outlook on income, business, and labor market conditions has risen to 89.1. Normally, if the index is below 80, it indicates that a recession is imminent.
The data also shows that the proportion of respondents who believe the economy will enter a recession in the next 12 months has dropped to the lowest level since July 2022; The proportion of respondents who believe that it is currently easy to find a job has increased, while the proportion of respondents who believe that it is difficult to find a job has decreased.
According to US media analysis, data shows that consumers are very optimistic about the current economic situation. Given that personal consumption expenditure accounts for 70% of the US economy, the rise in consumer confidence index is “good news” for the US economy.
On the same day, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the number of vacant positions in the United States in September was 7.4 million, lower than the 7.9 million in August and the lowest since January 2021, but still higher than pre pandemic levels. Analysts believe that the current labor market is weak, but there is no sign of a recession.