According to data released by the German Federal Statistical Office on the 7th, after adjusting for prices, seasons, and working days, Germany’s industrial new orders in August decreased by 5.8% month on month, marking the largest decline since January. Previously, experts predicted a month on month decrease of 2.0%.
Data shows that in August, Germany’s domestic new orders decreased by 10.9% month on month, while foreign new orders decreased by 2.2% month on month. Among them, new orders from the eurozone decreased by 10.5% month on month, while new orders from outside the eurozone increased by 3.4% month on month.
The Federal Statistical Office pointed out that one of the reasons for the significant decline in new industrial orders in Germany this month was the decrease in orders in the field of “other transportation manufacturing” (such as aircraft, ships, trains, and military vehicle manufacturing). In this field, a large number of bulk orders were placed in July, causing market demand to become saturated.
In addition, the Federal Bureau of Statistics adjusted the month on month growth rate of new industrial orders in July from the previous 2.9% to 3.9%.
Sebastian Durien, Director of the Science Department at the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycles (IMK) in Germany, stated that the decrease in new industrial orders highlights the challenges faced by German industry. In the three main key areas of automobile manufacturing, machinery manufacturing, and chemical industry, German industry has been affected by weakness.
According to IMK’s current forecast, Germany’s gross domestic product is expected to remain stagnant in 2024 and grow by 0.7% in 2025. Duline pointed out that the current industrial situation poses a downside risk to this originally pessimistic forecast.
The German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection stated in a statement on the same day that new industrial orders in Germany have declined again after rebounding in the previous two months. The trend of new industrial orders is still significantly affected by the significant fluctuations in bulk orders. Against the backdrop of sustained weak industrial demand and negative corporate sentiment, the likelihood of a significant recovery in the industrial economy in the second half of 2024 is relatively low.